May 2025 Market Update
This May brought subtle(but measurable) changes to the South Santa Barbara County market. While single-family home prices softened a bit, the condo segment saw notable gains, hinting at evolving buyer behavior as we move further into 2025.
Highest & Lowest Sales
The highest recorded sale in May was a $13,000,000 estate at 4475 Via Abrigada in Hope Ranch. Hope Ranch has had an uptick in sales activity this year(75% YTD). A good reminder that high-end buyers are still active.
On the other end of the spectrum, the lowest sale came in at $265,000 for a property at 19 Fremont Lane. In all honesty, I had to look this address up because it was not ringing any bells for me. This is a cute 1 bed 1 bath cabin up the 154 hwy near Paradise Rd.
Single-Family Homes
Single-family home sales stayed almost flat year-over-year, with 86 homes sold in May 2025, just one more than last May.
But price-wise, we saw a noticeable dip:
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Median Sales Price: $2,281,250 (down 12% from May 2024)
This shift is largely influenced by a drop in ultra-luxury closings—fewer sales in the $8M+ range compared to this time last year. While demand remains strong, buyers seem to be approaching the market with more caution and strategy.
Condos
This segment was the standout story for May.
We saw 39 condo sales which is up from 35 last year BUT the pricing data is showing big upward pressure:
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Median Sales Price: $1,152,000 (up 24%)
Condos continue to attract buyers looking for low-maintenance living, lock-and-leave convenience and something affordable, especially as single-family prices remain high. Increased activity in Goleta, Carpinteria, and downtown Santa Barbara is fueling this growth.
Neighborhood Snapshots
Here’s a quick look at where median sale prices landed this May:
Single-Family Homes
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Carpinteria: $1,395,000
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Goleta: $1,700,000
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Santa Barbara: $2,600,000
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Montecito: $7,041,586
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Hope Ranch: $7,800,000
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Summerland: $1,495,000
Condos
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Carpinteria: $795,500
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Goleta: $1,217,000
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Santa Barbara: $1,207,500
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Montecito: $4,225,000
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(No condo sales reported in Summerland or Hope Ranch this month)
Inventory & Buyer Activity
We currently have a 3.49-month supply of inventory, which is still well below a balanced market. Properties that are dialed in and priced in line with current trends are moving quickly(under 30 days), especially in the condo space.
We’re also still seeing a strong share of cash purchases(40%), particularly in Montecito(77% in may). That trend reflects both the continued presence of luxury buyers and a desire to move quickly and cleanly in this competitive environment.
Final Thoughts
The market is still active, but it’s shifting. Sellers are facing a more conservative pool of buyers, and buyers are leaning on thoughtful strategy. This month, the average sale-to-list price ratio came in at 97%, meaning that, overall, homes sold for about 3% below their asking price. At the same time, 20% of homes sold over asking(1 in 5), which tells us something important: while a subset of well-positioned, well-priced homes is still attracting multiple offers and competitive bidding, the majority of homes are not.
That 97% average reflects a market where buyers are negotiating. In essence, the highs (over-asking sales) are being offset by homes that sit longer and sell below list, pulling the average down.
It’s a reminder that pricing strategy matters. Sellers can’t just rely on market momentum from the past. They need to price based on current conditions and current buyer demand. And buyers should be ready to act decisively on standout properties, while knowing there's room for negotiation on homes that don't sell right away.
In this mixed market, success comes from reading the signals clearly and moving with purpose. As always, I’m here to help you navigate it with clarity, data, and creativity.
