September 2025 Market Update

The Santa Barbara real estate market wrapped up September with a steady pulse- moderate inventory growth, strong cash activity, and clear proof that well-positioned listings still move quickly. While luxury communities like Hope Ranch and Montecito dominated the headlines, the broader South County market continues to show balance across all price points.

Highs and Lows of the Month’s Sales

Hope Ranch took the crown again with the month’s highest sale, a Via Roblada estate that closed for $24,000,000. The same property sold in 2022 for $17.2 million as a fixer. This time, it traded off-market, so there aren’t any interior photos. From aerial views, the landscaping looks improved, but it’s hard to tell what else was done. On the opposite end, the lowest sale was a small condo in Old Town Goleta for $565,000.

Fun fact: Carpinteria hit a milestone- the first single-family home sale in The Polo Residences closed at $6.34M, overlooking the practice field. In September, I sold a condo in the original Polo Condos community for just under $2M, front-row to the main field behind the goal posts. Now obviously these are two very different properties… and I wouldn't want to start beef but I’d prefer the view and access(and price) from the original condo community. It’ll be fascinating to watch how pricing trends unfold between these two communities over the coming years.

*and shameless plug for my clients- their Polo Lounge is ready for booking so reach out to the lovely ladies and STAYSB if you're interested! 

Sales Trends and Cash Transactions

In September, there were 33 single-family and 80 condo/PUD sales across South Santa Barbara County. Roughly 37% of all transactions were cash.

• 26% of sales closed above asking price

• Average sale-to-list ratio: 96%

• Months of inventory: approximately 3.9 months (steady and balanced).

Year-to-date, there have been 743 single-family and 278 condo/PUD sales, with 38% of buyers purchasing in cash.

Days on Market and Median Sales Prices

Homes are spending more time on the market:

• Single-family: ~42 days on market

• Condos/PUDs: ~30 days on market
  
  

Median Sales Prices — September 2025 (vs. September 2024):

• Single-family: $2,353,750 (+6%)

• Condos/PUDs: $1,180,000 (+4%)
  
  

Median Sales Prices — YTD 2025 (vs. 2024):

• Single-family: $2,362,230 (+5%)

• Condos/PUDs: $1,099,000 (+3%)
  
  

Market Stability & Regional Notes

The South Santa Barbara County market remains a study in contrasts, each community with its own personality, pace, and price movement.

Carpinteria

Carpinteria recorded 5 single-family and 5 condo sales in September. Median single-family price in Sept was $2.32M while condos averaged around $900k. Year-to-date, single-family sales are up 39% and median sales price is $2.2M 

Goleta

Goleta was one of the busiest submarkets with 23 single-family and 11 condo sales. Median prices held near $2M for homes and around $1.1M for condos. Year-to-date, condo sales are down about 21% and median sales price only saw a 1% increase.

Hope Ranch

Hope Ranch saw just 1 single-family sale in September but it was a record-setter. The Via Roblada estate closed(off market) for $24M, marking the highest sale across the South Coast for the second month in a row. Median prices have climbed roughly +10% YoY, and activity is up 93% YTD, cementing Hope Ranch as one of Santa Barbara’s most powerful luxury performers.

Montecito

Montecito posted 12 single-family and 5 condo sales in September. YTD median sale prices $6.1M (+8% YoY), and year-to-date single-family sales are up 26%, underscoring consistent demand for prestige properties and lifestyle-driven relocations.

Santa Barbara

Santa Barbara led the month with 38 single-family and 11 condo sales. Median single-family prices landed near $2.35M (+5% YoY), while condos averaged around $1.1M (+4% YoY). Year-to-date, single-family transactions are up 2%, showing resilience amid a shifting market.

Summerland

Summerland recorded 1 single-family sale and no condo sales in September- typical for its boutique, low-inventory profile. The home that sold was quite literally falling down the hill and split in half(sold for 1.4M) so I am interested in seeing what happens there. 

Current Market Pulse

It's currently mid-October as I write this and I can tell you that there has been an uptick in inventory and also action. A downtown fixer drew nearly 20 offers, a Bel Air Knolls home attracted around 10, and even a two-bedroom fixer in Carpinteria saw close to 10 offers. Well-priced homes continue to ignite strong results.

Conclusion & Future Outlook

September reinforced what’s true across every zip code in our area- Santa Barbara’s market may ebb and flow, but it isn't crashing. Inventory remains lean, cash buyers remain active, and quality listings continue to capture top-dollar results. As we move into Q4, strategy will play a pivotal role in the success of a listing. With 26% of homes selling above asking and an average SP:LP of 96%, buyers remain motivated and sellers who price smartly are still winning.  Overall, the market is balancing from all the activity over the last 5 years. Most sellers are still in a position to make money and buyers are finally getting breathing room during their search. Inventory is increasing but not to the point where it is diminishing home values. Prices across the South SB County are still rising, just at a slower rate. Earlier this year I predicted the median sales price to increase by 1-3% and its looking like that will be true. 

If you have questions about what you're seeing in the market, reach out!